EBRD Analysis Suggests Limited Disruption From US Tariffs

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) released a new report assessing the effects of US tariffs on global trade patterns. Contrary to initial expectations, the study finds that the tariffs—primarily introduced over the last several years—have not caused severe disruptions to international supply chains. Instead, some countries, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, are emerging as potential winners due to shifting trade relationships.

Bosnia Seen as a Beneficiary

According to EBRD economists, Bosnia and Herzegovina is well placed to attract new investment and trading partners. The report points to the country's competitive manufacturing sector and proximity to the European Union as factors supporting this outlook. Firms looking to avoid tariffs or diversify supply chains have increasingly considered locations like Bosnia to mitigate risks.

  • The EBRD analysis focuses on trade flows from 2018 to 2023.
  • Tariffs primarily targeted imports from China, the EU, and other trade partners.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina has seen modest but consistent export growth during this period.

Key Findings From the EBRD Report

The report notes that while businesses in countries facing new US tariffs experienced short-term adjustments, global trade volumes broadly recovered. Shifts in sourcing and destination choices by international companies have spread the impact across multiple regions, softening the effect on any single country or industry.

Bosnia benefited from its versatile industrial base, particularly in sectors such as automotive components and machinery. The ability to quickly adapt has allowed Bosnian exporters to gain market share, especially in European markets. Additionally, existing trade agreements with the European Union have helped facilitate the rerouting of goods and materials.

Implications for Regional Economies

The EBRD identifies a wider pattern among smaller economies in Southeast Europe. Countries with flexible production and close ties to large markets are better positioned to handle changing trade environments. Bosnia's role as a regional manufacturer has strengthened, though experts caution that future policy shifts could alter these trends.

While Bosnia and several neighboring countries are currently seeing increased interest from international investors, the EBRD urges policymakers to target sustainable growth and avoid overdependence on sectors vulnerable to new tariffs or regulatory changes. Enhancing infrastructure and innovation remains critical to long-term competitiveness.

Outlook for Bosnia and Trade Dynamics

Despite challenges presented by global policy uncertainties, the EBRD forecasts a stable outlook for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The country is expected to further integrate into European value chains, particularly as companies seek risk-averse alternatives outside traditional trade routes affected by US tariffs.

  • Bosnia's annual export growth averaged 4% from 2018 to 2022.
  • The manufacturing and metalworking industries have attracted new clients globally.
  • The EBRD report recommends increased investment in infrastructure and skills training.

As global markets continue to adapt, the EBRD emphasizes the importance of agility and ongoing reforms to capitalize on new opportunities. Bosnia and Herzegovina's response to evolving trade dynamics will remain a key area to watch in the coming years.